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Coronavirus: UK on track to have daily death toll of zero by July

Britain is on track to have zero Covid-19 deaths by July, a leading expert predicted today – as health chiefs announced 324 more coronavirus fatalities. 

Professor Carl Heneghan, an Oxford University epidemiologist, expects no ‘excess deaths’ when weekly data taking into account suspected and confirmed deaths is published next Tuesday.  

The weekly death toll in England and Wales dropped to its lowest levels since the lockdown began, an Office for National Statistics (ONS) report said today. A total of 1,983 people in England and Wales died with Covid-19 in the week ending May 22, down almost 30 per cent in a week and the lowest figure for two months.  

Both England and Wales – which suffered 16,000 deaths during the darkest fortnight of the crisis in April – are now en route to the way they were before the unprecedented lockdown was imposed on March 23.  

But sobering statistics also show that there have now been nearly 50,000 people killed by Covid-19 across the UK this year, cementing Britain’s position as one of the worst-hit countries in the world. And other estimates looking at ‘excess deaths’ – deemed the most reliable measure to work out the true scale of an infectious disease outbreak – show 62,000 more fatalities were recorded during the pandemic than expected.

It comes as the UK Government this week starts to move the nation out of lockdown and back to work and school as the number of new deaths and cases continue to tumble. 

Department of Health figures today revealed the official death toll has jumped to 39,369 – an increase of 324 on yesterday. For comparison, 111 fatalities were registered yesterday, as well as 134 last Tuesday – a figure much lower than expected due to a recording lag on the bank holiday Monday.  

At this evening’s press Downing Street press conference, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the trend for daily infections is ‘broadly down but there is still some way to go’, as the total number of positive tests neared 278,000. 

Mr Hancock said the number of new admissions for Covid-19 in England has fallen to the lowest since March 20, and demonstrates progress against the disease. Daily admissions are down seven per cent since last Tuesday.  

In other developments to Britain’s coronavirus crisis today:

  • Brits swamped newly opened McDonald’s restaurants and Ikea stores while the country’s largest coronavirus testing centres stood idle;
  • Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) people are more likely to die from Covid-19, a long-awaited Public Health England review confirmed; 
  • Scientists have no proof that Britain will be struck by a second wave of coronavirus – despite the widespread fears, leading expert Professor Hugh Pennington warned;
  • Boris Johnson was urged to drops plans to quarantine visitors to the UK to avoid a ‘catastrophic’ hammer blow to the tourism and hospitality industries that could lead to tens of thousands of job losses.

AREAS WITH THE MOST AND LEAST COVID-19 DEATHS

According to ONS data for England and Wales up to May 22, these are the areas that had recorded the most and least deaths from the coronavirus: 

MOST DEATHS

  1. Birmingham (1,082) 
  2. Leeds (605)
  3. County Durham (567)
  4. Liverpool (529)
  5. Sheffield (498)
  6. Brent (465)
  7. Croydon (458)
  8. Barnet (442)
  9. Cheshire East (417)
  10. Bradford (416)

FEWEST DEATHS

  1. Isles of Scilly (0)
  2. City of London (5)  
  3. Ceredigion (7)
  4. Hastings (8)
  5. South Hams (12)
  6. Rutland (15)
  7. Mid Devon (15)
  8. West Devon (15)
  9. Norwich (17)
  10. Mendip (18)

The Department of Health revealed 324 more people had died across all settings. 

Each nation’s health agency reported their own figures earlier today – including 12 in Scotland, seven in Wales and two in Northern Ireland. These figures do not always match with the DH count because of a difference in how they are recorded.

Today’s official Government figure, which brings the total closer to 40,000, is 68 per cent lower than the Tuesday a fortnight ago, when 545 deaths were recorded following a lag in reporting over the bank holiday. 

Processes for recording people’s deaths are known for slowing down and even stopping at the weekends and on bank holidays, meaning there is a dip every Monday, followed by surges on Tuesdays.   

The weekly report from ONS said there were 12,288 deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending May 22, known as ‘Week 21’.

This was 2,285 less than the previous week – but still 2,348 more than usual for this time of year.

Professor Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, University of Oxford said he expects deaths to be back to normal by next week. 

Asked during a Science Media Centre briefing whether he expects deaths from Covid-19 to stop or plateau, Professor Heneghan said: ‘If the trends continue, the deaths look like they will be back to where they should be normally by next week.

‘There’s been a continued reduction in hospital deaths, care home outbreaks are coming down so the ‘all deaths’ by (week) 22 I’m expecting will be back to where we should be.’

Professor Heneghan said there may be no Covid-19 deaths by the end of June – which would follow Spain yesterday. Italy is still reporting between 50 and 100 deaths per day, and France around 30.

‘But it also depends on what happens next, within sporadic outbreaks,’ Professor Heneghan said.

He warned that there will be spikes in deaths with further outbreaks in care homes, and said information on how many people are catching the virus in hospital would ‘give us a really good understanding of the spreading of this disease’.

Professor Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at The Open University, said: ‘I certainly don’t want to be a prophet of gloom, but I would urge some caution about these positive trends. 

‘The new week’s data would not yet have been affected by the loosening of the lockdown. That began to happen in the previous week (ending 15 May), though most changes occurred much more recently.

‘If any of the changes turn out to have increased infections, that won’t show up in death statistics yet anyway, because obviously there is a time gap between infection and death. But we’ll see eventually.’ 

The week ending May 22 had the fewest coronavirus deaths of any seven-day period since Britain’s lockdown began in March. The Office for National Statistics showed that 1,983 people died in England and Wales in the week ending May 22, down from 2,766 a week earlier

Britain yesterday announced 111 more deaths among people who had tested positive for coronavirus – the lowest daily toll since March 23, when Boris Johnson imposed draconian measures to control the outbreak. 

But the death total actually rose by 556, with 445 extra fatalities appearing in figures for the first time after health chiefs added extra deaths linked to cases identified through testing that wasn’t carried out by NHS.   

Separate figures published by the ONS today showed Birmingham is the local authority with the most Covid-19 fatalities in England and Wales, and the only one to have recorded more than 1,000 victims (1,082).

Meanwhile, Leeds, County Durham and Liverpool have all recorded more than 500 deaths each since the beginning of the pandemic – 605, 567 and 529, respectively.

Only one local authority in England and Wales has recorded no deaths at all – the Isles of Scilly off the coast of Cornwall, which are home to just 2,000 people.

The ONS data today confirmed that 43,387 people in England and Wales died with confirmed or suspected Covid-19 by May 22.

In Northern Ireland, that figure was 705 by the same date, the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) has confirmed.

And National Records Scotland said 3,775 people had died north of the border by May 24.

The counts are 10 days behind the Department of Health because they wait until as many deaths as possible for each date have been counted, to avoid having to revise their statistics.

By comparison, the Department of Health announces deaths for each day as soon as it receives them, meaning they are continuously updated as more registrations filter through the system – one announced by the NHS yesterday, for example, dated back to March 19.

LONDON BOROUGH OF BRENT HAS THE HIGHEST COVID-19 DEATH RATE IN ENGLAND, DATA SHOWS

The London borough of Brent has recorded the highest coronavirus death rates in England among confirmed cases of the disease, new figures show.

Up to May 13 2020, the mortality rate for male confirmed Covid-19 cases in Brent stood at 244.9 deaths per 100,000 population, while for women the rate was 119.4 per 100,000.

The figures, published by NHS England, also show that the eight local authority areas with the highest death rates among male confirmed cases were all in London, with Brent followed by Lambeth (213.3 deaths per 100,000 population), Newham (196.6) and Lewisham (181.5)

The local authority area outside London with the highest death rate among males is Middlesbrough (156.0) followed by Luton (154.7).

For women, seven of the top 10 areas are in London, though Middlesbrough is ranked second (104.7 deaths per 100,000 population), followed by the London boroughs of Lambeth (100.8) and Lewisham (100.0).

Salford is ranked seventh (91.6) and Sunderland is ranked 10th (80.6).

Across England as a whole, the death rate among confirmed cases was highest in London for both males (140.3 per 100,000 population) and females (66.8).

South-west England had the lowest death rate among confirmed cases for both males (33.1) and females (16.3).

In every region of England, the death rate in males was higher than females.

All figures are age-standardised death rates and are based on laboratory-confirmed cases of Covid-19. 

Because of this, the number of deaths announced on any date is significantly higher by the time the ONS has calculated it. 

The difference between the statistics agencies’ total and the Department of Health total for May 22 is 31.5 per cent (47,871 compared to 36,393).

If the most recent death toll announced by the Government was increased by the same amount it would mean that there have already been 51,344 Covid-19 victims who died after testing positive for the disease.

The Government does not count people who never tested positive. 

And by counting excess deaths – those which happen on top of the ones that would be expected in an average year – statisticians can see that the pandemic appears to have contributed to the deaths of around 62,000 people already.

There were 56,308 excess deaths in England and Wales between March 21 and May 22, compared with the average number of deaths for that period over five years.

Equivalent numbers for Scotland and Northern Ireland take the total number of excess deaths in the UK to 61,795. 

In England and Wales, Covid-19 was responsible for 77 per cent of those excess deaths. 

The others are likely people who died as an indirect result of the pandemic, for example if their medical treatment was postponed because hospitals were busy, or if they avoided going to hospital out of fear of the virus. They may also have died with the virus but never been diagnosed by a doctor or a test. 

Out of all deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales, 64 per cent (28,159) had occurred in hospitals by May 22.

A further 29 per cent (12,739) took place in care homes, with 5 per cent (1,991) in private homes, 1 per cent (582) in hospices, 0.4 per cent (197) in other communal establishments, and 0.4 per cent (169) elsewhere.

The drop in the number of deaths registered each week by the ONS represents a fall of more than a quarter in just a single week.  

There were 28 per cent fewer deaths that happened in the week ending May 22 than the week before, the stats show (2,766 down to 1,983).  

The ONS said there were 12,288 deaths of all causes registered in England and Wales in the week ending May 22 – a drop of 2,285 from the previous week but still 2,348 more than the five-year average. 

Shock new data has laid bare the coronavirus regional divide in Britain, with the north of England having almost twice the infection rate of London

REVEALED: THE AREAS OF ENGLAND AND WALES THAT HAVE BEEN WORST-HIT BY COVID-19 

LOCAL AREA 

Barrow-in-Furness

Ashford

Lancaster

South Lakeland

Sunderland

Gateshead

South Tyneside

Middlesbrough

Blackpool

Thanet

Oldham

Carlisle

Knowsley

Brent

King’s Lynn and West Norfolk

Dartford

Sheffield

St. Helens

Oxford

Watford

TOTAL CASES 

561                              

809

798

527

1,380

1,004

744

677

643

651

1,079

492

668

1,471

670                             

479

2,542

754

643

399

RATE PER 100K

835.6                         

625.8

553.2

504.2

497.4

495.8

495.1

481.7

461.6

459

457.9

453.9

446.6

444.7

441.3                          

436.6

436.4

418.8

416.6

412.3

There were 1,289 excess deaths in care homes during the seven days, compared with the five-year average, and 24 fewer deaths in hospitals. 

In total, the ONS said there have been 286,759 deaths to date in England and Wales – 51,466 more than the five-year average. 

Of the deaths registered by May 22, 43,837 mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate – 15.3 per cent of all deaths. 

Detailed analysis on non-Covid-19 deaths will be published by the ONS on Friday. 

The proportion of deaths in care homes involving coronavirus fell to below a third in the week ending May 22. 

Some 32.5 per cent of all deaths in care homes involved Covid-19 during the seven days, compared with 37.2 per cent the week before. 

More than twice the number of people with learning disabilities died over five weeks during the coronavirus pandemic compared to the same period last year, according to the care regulator.

Between April 10 and May 15, 386 people with learning disabilities, some of whom may also be autistic, who were receiving care from services died, the Care Quality Commission (CQC) said. This is a 134 per cent rise compared with the same period in 2019, when 165 people with learning disabilities and/or autism who were receiving care died. 

Working with the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the CQC analysed all death notifications during the five weeks from registered providers providing care to people with a learning disability and/or autism in the community and in hospitals. 

Just over half of the deaths – 206 – involved suspected or confirmed Covid-19, while 180 were not related to the virus. 

Some 184 people were receiving care from community-based adult social care services, and 195 from residential social care settings. 

There were fewer than five deaths notified in each of the other settings, including community health, hospice services and mental health services, the CQC said. It said its findings should be considered when decisions are made over prioritising tests. 

More people with learning disabilities have died of Covid-19 during the five-week period from April 10 than died in total in that same period last year (206 compared to 165)

The Care Quality Commission, which regulates services caring for people with disabilities in England, found that 386 people died between April 10 and May 15. This was 134 per cent higher than the same period last year, when the total was 165

Researchers found there was roughly a 1.3 per cent chance of contracting the virus when two metres from an infected patient. But halving this gap raised the risk to only 2.6 per cent. This means the disease would spread to fewer than three in 100 people, against 13 in 100 without any social distancing at all. That equates to an 80 per cent reduction in risk

DEATHS OF PEOPLE WITH LEARNING DISABILITIES ARE TWICE AS HIGH AS LAST YEAR

More than twice the number of people with learning disabilities died over five weeks during the coronavirus pandemic compared to the same period last year, the care regulator says. 

Between April 10 and May 15, 386 people with learning disabilities, some of whom may also be autistic, who were receiving care from services died, the Care Quality Commission (CQC) said. 

This is a 134% rise compared with the same period in 2019, when 165 people with learning disabilities and/or autism who were receiving care died. 

Working with the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the CQC analysed all death notifications during the five weeks from registered providers providing care to people with a learning disability and/or autism in the community and in hospitals. 

Just over half of the deaths – 206 – involved suspected or confirmed Covid-19, while 180 were not related to the virus. 

Some 184 people were receiving care from community-based adult social care services, and 195 from residential social care settings. 

There were fewer than five deaths notified in each of the other settings, including community health, hospice services and mental health services, the CQC said. It said its findings should be considered when decisions are made over prioritising tests.

Kate Terroni, chief inspector of adult social care at the Care Quality Commission, said: ‘Every death in today’s figures represents an individual tragedy for those who have lost a loved one. 

‘While we know this data has its limitations, what it does show is a significant increase in deaths of people with a learning disability as a result of Covid-19. 

‘We already know that people with a learning disability are at an increased risk of respiratory illnesses, meaning that access to testing could be key to reducing infection and saving lives. 

‘These figures also show that the impact on this group of people is being felt at a younger age range than in the wider population – something that should be considered in decisions on testing of people of working age with a learning disability.’ 

The CQC said it is not mandatory for providers to tell them if a person who has died has a learning disability. Its analysis does not account for patients detained under the Mental Health Act. The regulator is reviewing how it works with providers to ensure data it receives is accurate and accessible. 

Dr Rhidian Hughes, chief executive of the Voluntary Organisations Disability Group (VODG) welcomed the analysis but said it had taken the CQC ‘too long’ to produce it. 

He said: ‘These findings are a sad and stark reminder to us all of the impact that coronavirus is having on people with a learning disability and/or autism. 

‘The figures are a wake-up call for Government to put right its testing programme that is currently neglecting disabled people of working age who use care services. The current focus of the testing programme is on older people in care homes with a diagnosis of a dementia. 

‘That decision needs to be reviewed urgently so that symptomatic and asymptomatic disabled people can readily access tests.’ 

Edel Harris, chief executive of the learning disability charity Mencap, said the increase was ‘deeply troubling’.  

Kate Terroni, chief inspector of adult social care at the Care Quality Commission, said: ‘Every death in today’s figures represents an individual tragedy for those who have lost a loved one. 

‘While we know this data has its limitations, what it does show is a significant increase in deaths of people with a learning disability as a result of Covid-19. 

‘We already know that people with a learning disability are at an increased risk of respiratory illnesses, meaning that access to testing could be key to reducing infection and saving lives. 

‘These figures also show that the impact on this group of people is being felt at a younger age range than in the wider population – something that should be considered in decisions on testing of people of working age with a learning disability.’ 

The CQC said it is not mandatory for providers to tell them if a person who has died has a learning disability. Its analysis does not account for patients detained under the Mental Health Act. The regulator is reviewing how it works with providers to ensure data it receives is accurate and accessible. 

Dr Rhidian Hughes, chief executive of the Voluntary Organisations Disability Group (VODG) welcomed the analysis but said it had taken the CQC ‘too long’ to produce it. 

He said: ‘These findings are a sad and stark reminder to us all of the impact that coronavirus is having on people with a learning disability and/or autism. 

‘The figures are a wake-up call for Government to put right its testing programme that is currently neglecting disabled people of working age who use care services. The current focus of the testing programme is on older people in care homes with a diagnosis of a dementia. 

‘That decision needs to be reviewed urgently so that symptomatic and asymptomatic disabled people can readily access tests.’ 

Edel Harris, chief executive of the learning disability charity Mencap, said the increase was ‘deeply troubling’. 

She said: ‘The devastating impact of Covid-19 on our community is shocking, but sadly not surprising, when we have long been warning that the healthcare rights of people with a learning disability are under threat like never before. 

‘Throughout this crisis, we have repeatedly challenged discriminatory healthcare guidance and practice, and we continue to support people with a learning disability and their families to access the treatment and support they have a right to.’ 

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said: ‘Every death from this virus is a tragedy and we are working hard to save lives and protect people most in need of support. 

‘We have significantly increased testing capacity so everyone with symptoms of coronavirus can be tested, and have already carried out more than four million tests. 

‘We are working to improve our understanding of how different groups may be affected by the virus, including those with learning disabilities or autism, to ensure we can provide the best support and protect those most at risk.’ 

It comes as separate figures yesterday revealed almost half of NHS hospital trusts in England had reported no new fatalities in the past 48 hours.

Two experts who analysed the data revealed 12 NHS hospital trusts in England (9.2 per cent) have had no Covid-19 deaths in the past week, as well as 65 (49.6 per cent) who have registered none in the past 48 hours. 

For contrast, that rate has barely changed since the academics began to analyse the figures on May 21, according to Oxford University’s Professor Carl Heneghan and Dr Jason Oke. 

And the number of trusts which hadn’t recorded a death for 48 hours was the second-highest since the pair began to collect data, down from 52.7 per cent yesterday. 

HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE DIED OF CORONAVIRUS IN YOUR LOCAL AUTHORITY? ONS DATA REVEALS BIRMINGHAM HAS RECORDED THE MOST COVID-19 DEATHS 
LOCAL AUTHORITY# OF DEATHSLOCAL AUTHORITY# OF DEATHS
Birmingham 1,082 Hartlepool 93 
Leeds605Maidstone93
County Durham567Mole Valley93
Liverpool529Horsham93
Sheffield498Welwyn Hatfield93
Brent465Canterbury92
Croydon458Charnwood92
Barnet442Chiltern91
Cheshire East417Wealden91
Bradford416Fareham91
Ealing387Elmbridge90
Harrow379Chorley89
Enfield372Neath Port Talbot89
Wirral368Stroud88
Manchester344Sevenoaks88
Cardiff338Telford and Wrekin87
Walsall333Eastleigh87
Sandwell318Broxtowe87
Sunderland314Ashford86
Bromley314Powys85
Wiltshire310Bath and North East Somerset84
Wigan310North Hertfordshire84
Cheshire West and Chester309Huntingdonshire83
Redbridge300Amber Valley82
Stockport299High Peak82
Hillingdon299Wyre82
Salford294Bridgend82
Newham294Three Rivers81
Bolton281South Staffordshire81
Wolverhampton275Vale of Glamorgan81
Lewisham274North Lincolnshire80
Wakefield273Guildford80
Kirklees267Blackburn with Darwen79
Dudley265Spelthorne79
Lambeth264Tandridge79
Havering263Warwick78
Derby260East Hampshire77
Haringey258Hinckley and Bosworth77
Sefton255Darlington76
Coventry255Plymouth75
Rotherham250Brentwood75
Rhondda Cynon Taf246Gravesham75
Solihull244Folkestone and Hythe75
Southwark236Breckland75
Waltham Forest233Surrey Heath75
Leicester232Peterborough74
Northumberland230Rushmoor74
Oldham227East Northamptonshire74
Tameside224Barrow-in-Furness73
East Riding of Yorkshire223Erewash73
Bristol, City of223Dover73
Gateshead218Chichester73
Hackney217Carmarthenshire73
Central Bedfordshire214Broxbourne72
Greenwich212Scarborough72
Hounslow212Epsom and Ewell71
Northampton211Cambridge70
Warrington203Oxford70
Nottingham202Crawley70
Newcastle upon Tyne202Worthing70
Wandsworth202Chesterfield69
Bexley200Harlow68
Cornwall192Rochford68
Barnsley192Fylde68
Merton191South Ribble68
Shropshire190Rushcliffe68
East Suffolk188Castle Point67
Swansea188Newark and Sherwood67
Milton Keynes187Lancaster65
Trafford187Pendle65
Middlesbrough185Kettering65
Luton182West Suffolk65
Doncaster182Denbighshire65
Bury181Cannock Chase64
Rochdale181Isle of Wight63
Tower Hamlets179Fenland63
Basildon178North Warwickshire63
St. Helens177Rugby63
Westminster177Torfaen62
Hertsmere173Monmouthshire62
Epping Forest172Allerdale61
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole167Merthyr Tydfil61
Reigate and Banstead166Bracknell Forest60
Hammersmith and Fulham163Eastbourne60
Sutton163Craven60
Medway161Mansfield60
Southend-on-Sea157Woking60
Barking and Dagenham157Blaenau Gwent60
Stoke-on-Trent153Broadland59
Stratford-on-Avon153Mid Suffolk59
Dorset152Derbyshire Dales58
Newport152Hambleton58
Camden151Uttlesford57
Mid Sussex150Runnymede57
South Gloucestershire149Gosport55
Swindon148Tonbridge and Malling55
Reading147Burnley55
York144Blaby55
Islington144Wellingborough55
South Tyneside142Conwy55
Kingston upon Hull, City of141Torbay54
Southampton141North West Leicestershire54
Richmond upon Thames140Sedgemoor53
South Lakeland139Staffordshire Moorlands53
Gloucester138Worcester53
East Staffordshire137Stevenage53
Brighton and Hove136Cotswold52
Harrogate136Harborough52
North Tyneside136Daventry52
Wokingham135Babergh52
King’s Lynn and West Norfolk131Gwynedd52
Tendring130South Cambridgeshire51
West Berkshire126Redditch51
Knowsley126Copeland50
Cheltenham125South Kesteven50
Caerphilly125Arun50
Windsor and Maidenhead124Bolsover49
Ashfield124Tamworth48
Kingston upon Thames124Wrexham48
Bedford123Hyndburn47
Chelmsford123Oadby and Wigston47
Waverley123South Bucks46
Thurrock122East Cambridgeshire46
Thanet122Rother46
New Forest121South Norfolk46
Aylesbury Vale120Rossendale45
Kensington and Chelsea119Bassetlaw45
Carlisle118Tunbridge Wells44
Bromsgrove118North Norfolk44
Nuneaton and Bedworth117South Somerset44
North East Derbyshire116Forest of Dean43
Ipswich113South Northamptonshire43
St Albans113Malvern Hills43
Vale of White Horse112East Devon42
Cherwell111East Lindsey42
Dacorum108Hart41
Wyre Forest108South Holland41
Blackpool107Corby39
Newcastle-under-Lyme107Richmondshire39
Gedling106Selby39
West Oxfordshire106Adur39
Watford105Exeter38
Stockton-on-Tees104North Kesteven38
Herefordshire, County of104Pembrokeshire38
West Lancashire103Eden37
Lichfield103Somerset West and Taunton37
Calderdale103Great Yarmouth35
Redcar and Cleveland102North East Lincolnshire34
North Somerset102Teignbridge31
Slough102Maldon30
Tewkesbury102Boston30
Winchester102Ryedale26
Basingstoke and Deane101North Devon24
Havant100Melton23
Preston100Lincoln22
South Oxfordshire100Isle of Anglesey21
Lewes99Torridge19
Colchester99Ribble Valley19
Flintshire99West Lindsey19
Portsmouth98Mendip18
Braintree98Norwich17
Swale98Rutland15
Stafford98Mid Devon15
Halton97West Devon15
Test Valley96South Hams12
Dartford96Hastings8
Wycombe95Ceredigion7
South Derbyshire95City of London5
East Hertfordshire95Isles of Scilly0
Wychavon94SOURCE: ONS, UP TO MAY 22

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