October 24, 2019 | 5:01pm
Despite a lot of people talking about the “haves” and “have nots” in the NFL, parity is alive and well, at least when it comes to betting against the spread.
Double-digit underdogs have gone 3-0 ATS the last two weeks with the Bengals +10¹/₂ vs. the Ravens in Week 6 and the Dolphins +17 vs. the Bills plus the Redskins +10 vs. the 49ers in Week 7 (note: we’re not counting — and trying to forget! — the Jets vs. the Patriots on Monday night as some books were offering +10 but it closed +9¹/₂).
The Redskins are back in that role on Thursday night as 16-point road underdogs at the Minnesota Vikings, and while we don’t expect them to pull the outright upset like the Colts did in Week 5 as 11-point road dogs at Kansas City, we’re betting the Redskins can stay within the huge spread.
The Redskins were just the fourth team in the Super Bowl era (and first since 2007) to cover as double-digit underdogs despite not scoring a point vs. the 49ers, so why can’t they do the same as 16-point dogs? That’s really not a rhetorical question, though I think it’ll still take a score or two from the Redskins offense (which is averaging 12.9 points per game despite the shutout) to cover against a Vikings offense which has stepped up since the public flogging of Kirk Cousins.
Still, the Redskins at least playing are well enough on the defensive side of the ball to keep Minnesota under 30 points and get the cover (24-10 or 27-13 sounds about right, so I lean to Under the betting total of 42 points, too).
The play: Redskins, +16 (Note: The betting public is expecting a blowout and this line has hit 16.5 at some books, so grab the best number you can).